Paper short abstract:

This paper examines the threat of the resettlement of Syrian refugees on the Lebanese consociational political system presenting the affect of change in demography and social composition on the balance of power in Lebanon.

Paper long abstract:

In 1943, Lebanon achieved independence from the French mandate, and Lebanese leaders agreed on a convention called the National Pact, that enabled the heterogeneous society of more than 18 different sects to divide and share the power equally between Christians and Muslims. The National Pact created a balance of power among the different sects and preserved the Lebanese consociational political system especially after the Lebanese civil war 1975-1990. The civil war broke the demographic balance between the Christians and Muslims but the political system succeeded in keeping the balance of power and thus securing a fragile stability. Recently, the Syrian conflict resulted in a huge Syrian mobility towards Lebanon, where more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees escaped the raging war in Syria and fled to Lebanon constituting quarter of the total Lebanese population. The Syrian refugees share the same infrastructure and resources with the Lebanese, and they became part of the Lebanese social composition and work force.This paper examines the effects of Syrian refugees on the Lebanese consociational political system. It argues that the presence of Syrian refugees breaks the balance of power in the Lebanese political system, and therefore threaten the continuity of the National Pact that preserved Lebanon as a state since independence. This paper measures the relation between the social composition and the political system in Lebanon presenting the threat of the resettlement of Syrian refugees on the Lebanese consociational political system.