Paper short abstract:

This paper looks at changes in policy effort, socio-economic outcomes, political participation and mobilization in Latin America. We conclude that Latin America has become more inclusionary, a move rooted in the third wave of democratization. Yet, numerous challenges remain to deepen inclusion.

Paper long abstract:

Latin America has been the global champion of inequality for decades if not centuries. Colonial rule built an economy and polity based on highly unequal income and wealth in addition to deeply exclusionary political systems. Over the 2000s, however, most indicators of poverty, inequality, informal employment, secondary school achievement and rights fulfilment have improved across Latin America. Almost all governments launched new social programs, from non-contributory pensions to conditional and unconditional cash transfers. It is unclear, however, to what extent these efforts are cosmetic and/or fragile or whether they represent enduring and meaningful reforms of Latin American political economy. This paper asks whether these improvements are a solid step forward towards a more inclusionary Latin America. To answer, we look at changes in policy effort, socio-economic outcomes, political participation and mobilization. Our conclusion is that Latin America has indeed become more inclusionary, a move which finds its roots in the third wave of democratization and the effects of democracy over time as opposed to the combination of the 'pink tide' and the commodity boom. But, the end of the commodity boom poses considerable risks. Rising incomes along with increased participation and mobilization have created the conditions for Latin American citizens to expect and to demand more of their governments. Yet, it is unclear that representative democracy can offer responses that deepen the inclusionary process and effectively incorporate aspiring classes in a stable, institutionalized system of interest aggregation and mediation.