Paper short abstract:

This paper discusses how the combination of a top-down, internationally-backed initiative against organised crime and a bottom up mass protest movement has played a crucial role in sowing the seeds for 'transformation against the odds' in Guatemala.

Paper long abstract:

Corruption in Guatemala is deeply entrenched. Historically, the dominant elites have viewed the state as a source of personal enrichment and advancement. This paper discusses how the combination of an internationally-backed initiative against organised crime and a mass protest movement has played a crucial role in sowing the seeds for 'transformation against the odds' in Guatemala. The UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) has opened up spaces that would have been near inaccessible in any other way, given Guatemala's highly exclusionary socio-economic and political system.

This, combined with public outrage at proof unearthed by the CICIG that President (and former military sytrongman) Otto Pérez Molina was not only head of state, but headed a parallel nationwide criminal structure of high-ranking officials and corrupt businessmen, has brought about unprecedented - and unexpected - change.

Thus, through a combination of "people's power" and a politically smart, internationally supported initiative to combat corruption, history has been made in Guatemala. Yet, while there is room for enthusiasm, history has taught us that it is much easier to get rid of undesired rulers than it is to build a political system that is inclusive, representative and accountable. The road ahead in Guatemala remains steep.