Paper short abstract:

Since 1994 Malawi's political elite have crafted a settlement at critical junctures that has guaranteed them access to rents and power and has resulted in peace and national underdevelopment.

Paper long abstract:

After a brief analysis of Malawi's political elite, the argument is made that since 1994, the elite has constructed its settlement in a way that has generally benefited them politically and economically as a whole and individually, has established a social contract with the population that generally maintains enough services to sustain social conciliation, has created a workable though less-than-democratic governance arrangement, and has done all of this while not establishing a policy environment conducive to national economic development.

The settlement has been crafted through a series of 'critical junctures', when it was tested and shaped by politicians seeking to optimise their benefits but willing or forced to compromise to maintain a balance of power and peace. The paper then focuses on four critical junctures since 1994, where institutions were laid down or further entrenched, which affected rent generation and management, economic policy-making and implementation, and national governance.

While a tipping point has been reached on these and a number of other occasions, sometimes resulting in bloodshed and threatening major unrest, a new elite bargain has been struck in time to avoid major disturbances and afterwards a slightly different arrangement has been established, with modified, tacit norms guiding marginally shifted power relations and elite behaviours, including how the ruling class treats ordinary Malawians, extracts and dispense rents, and approaches national economic issues. No significant paradigm shift has resulted in more than 20 years that has promised or portends nationwide developmentalism.