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Contribution short abstract:

This study evaluates the impact of Germany's 2015 refugee policy on the healthcare sector using a Differences-in-Differences approach. By comparing regional variations in refugee influx, it identifies causal effects on healthcare workforce capacity and service delivery.

Contribution long abstract:

The 2015 refugee crisis, fueled by conflict in Syria, prompted Germany to adopt a historic "open-door" policy under Chancellor Angela Merkel, allowing hundreds of thousands of refugees to seek asylum. While this policy has been the subject of intense debate, its economic and social implications, particularly within critical sectors such as healthcare, require further empirical investigation. This study aims to evaluate the potential impact of the refugee influx on Germany's healthcare sector, focusing on workforce dynamics, service quality, and capacity expansion.

Employing a Differences-in-Differences (DID) regression framework, the research will analyze variations in healthcare outcomes across German regions that experienced differing levels of refugee settlement. By leveraging publicly available data on healthcare performance metrics, demographic trends, and refugee distributions between 2014 and 2017, the study seeks to establish a causal link between refugee settlement patterns and sectoral changes in healthcare delivery.

This research is expected to provide insights into whether and how migration, even in its extreme forms such as forced displacement, can address labor shortages and enhance sectoral performance. The findings will contribute to academic and policy discussions on migration by reframing the narrative from one of crisis to one of opportunity. Ultimately, this study aspires to inform future migration and integration policies by demonstrating the potential for inclusive approaches to foster economic and social resilience.