Paper short abstract:

Trade networks in monsoon Asia can be best understood in the context of the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems. We describe adaptations from the late 16th to early 18th centuries that may reflect a response to anomalies in the mean state of climate across the Pacific basin.

Paper long abstract:

Using North American and Monsoon Asian Drought Atlases derived from tree ring records, we analyze the spatial climate dynamics that influenced the Pacific basin over the past millennium. We identify key periods where anomalous conditions coincided with dramatic societal upheavals. Our analysis, applied in this manner for the first time, enables us to investigate how dynamic local institutional responses to variations in climate across the colonial periphery impacted the development of global trade.

We propose that the transition from Iberian dominance of trade networks in monsoon Asia to Dutch control of much of the Southeast Asian archipelago can be best understood in the context of the dynamics of coupled human-natural systems. We describe commercial, political and social adaptations from the late 16th to early 18th centuries that may reflect a response to anomalies in the mean state of climate across the Pacific basin. Anomalies include variations in mean wind direction, droughts, pluvials, temperature, and monsoon onset or withdrawal dates.

We suggest that anomalous climate and corresponding social and political adaptations helped draw mainland Southeast Asia into involvement with the Iberian networks, then helped the Dutch extend control over most of the archipelago in the 17th century, yet mitigated colonial influence over mainland states and limited interactions with China. Localized merchants of Portuguese origin in the mainland ports and capitals remained important during the Dutch advance, and helped shape the mainland states that emerged following decadal-scale drought and regional warfare in the mid- to late-18th century.