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Abstract

This article analyzes the determinants of perceived contradictions across economic, political, and social spheres in contemporary Russia. Drawing on data from the 2024 monitoring study conducted by the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology (FNISS RAS), the authors investigate whether objective socioeconomic status or subjective well-being exerts a stronger influence on conflict perception. Employing a Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) model that incorporates stratification variables, value orientations, and subjective indices, we demonstrate that subjective factors, specifically trust in institutions, economic anxiety, and perceived life achievements play a pivotal role, often outweighing objective material conditions. While the primary analysis focuses on national aggregates, the study explicitly acknowledges significant regional heterogeneity, noting that the dynamics of the "social contract" likely differ across distinct macro-regions such as Siberia, the Volga region (Povolzhye), and the North Caucasus due to varying ethnocultural contexts and economic structures; detailed sub-national estimations for these specific areas are outlined for forthcoming technical reporting. These findings are interpreted within the framework of social contract theory, positing that institutional trust serves as the key indicator of the agreement between citizens and the state. The study contributes to the broader scholarly literature by challenging purely materialist interpretations of social tension, offering a nuanced view of how psychological factors and regional diversity collectively shape the stability of the Russian social order amidst ongoing transformative changes.