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Abstract

Kazakhstan represents a demographic outlier among post-Soviet states, experiencing a sustained fertility recovery since the late 1990s while most of the region stagnated at sub-replacement levels. This paper examines how religion, religiosity, and value orientations shape fertility outcomes in Kazakhstan using data from the 2018 Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). Poisson and Cox regression models show that Muslims consistently report more children than non-Muslims, even after controlling for socio-demographic characteristics. Religiosity has a non-linear effect as modest levels already raise fertility among Muslims, while religiosity has no effect for non-Muslims. Value orientations show that family-support norms increase fertility, especially for Muslims, whereas gender egalitarianism reduces fertility across groups. Therefore, these findings demonstrate that Kazakhstan’s demographic trajectory is sustained by a combination of Muslim identity, kinship-based family values, and selective adoption of modern norms.