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Abstract

The paper is devoted to the main demographic determinants of the higher birth orders (3rd and higher) in Kazakhstan. The fertility in the Central Asian region remains high in comparison with the world population and the demographic transition in the region seems to stall. There are several reasons explaining this phenomenon, and it looks like that the mechanisms based on the higher education participation decline and the labour market closed for women do not work. In our research we test the hypothesis that the higher fertility levels in the families of the mothers (higher numbers of siblings) has a positive correlation with the hazards to give birth of the children by higher orders (3, 4 and 5th). To approve the hypothesis we use data from Kazakhstan Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) organized at the late 2010s. Technically we use Cox proportional hazards model, and control for the possible confounders