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Abstract

This study assesses Uzbekistan’s renewable energy targets, resource potential, and deployment capacity to evaluate prospects for closing persistent electricity shortages and supporting the country’s green economy transition. Uzbekistan, the most populous Central Asian state, faces limited non renewable reserves and seasonal power deficits that disrupt homes, hospitals, and businesses. Renewables, particularly solar, wind, and hydropower offer cost effective, low carbon pathways to enhance supply reliability and reduce dependence on fossil fuels, while creating jobs and stimulating local industry. The study examines how supply side measures and coordinated investment can help Uzbekistan’s renewable energy resources cost effectively reduce seasonal electricity shortages and improve reliability.

We conduct a three stage framework analyses: (1) Target analysis, reviewing national and international commitments and policy goals for renewable deployment; (2) Potential analysis, comparing solar, wind, and hydro resource endowments; and (3) Capacity analysis, documenting existing installed capacity, recent project pipelines, and grid integration constraints. Material includes datasets and visualizations drawn from IRENA, the IEA, the World Bank, and official national and multilateral sources, combined with recent project reports and policy statements to ground the findings in current practice.

Uzbekistan has strong solar potential, selective wind resources, and seasonally variable hydropower, each requiring specific integration. Small scale solar can quickly expand rural access, while large projects and storage are essential for stable urban supply. Key barriers include grid limits, financing gaps, weak regulation, and institutional constraints, alongside social and environmental factors such as land, water, and community engagement. Yet policy reforms, investment in transmission and storage, international financing, and stronger public private partnerships with clear permitting can accelerate deployment and reduce blackouts.

The paper offers prioritized policy recommendations to align national targets with feasible investment pathways and grid upgrades, including pilot programs, tariff reforms, and capacity building for regulators. We also highlight the need for further research on cost optimal project sequencing, resilience to climate variability, and socio environmental impacts to ensure an equitable transition. By connecting technical analysis with practical policy steps, our findings aim to inform policymakers, investors, local communities, and researchers working to advance Uzbekistan’s renewable energy transition and improve everyday energy security.