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Abstract

Green hydrogen is increasingly seen as a key solution for reducing carbon emissions, but whether it can actually be developed in countries that depend heavily on fossil fuels is still an open question. Most research focuses on the technical and economic side of hydrogen, while the social and institutional conditions that determine whether projects succeed or fail receive far less attention. This paper addresses that gap through an empirical study of prospective green hydrogen development in western Kazakhstan — a country where hydrogen ambitions sit alongside deep economic dependence on oil and coal, weak institutional trust, and serious water scarcity.

The study draws on 24 interviews with institutional stakeholders from government, the private sector, civil society, and academia, alongside 24 individual interviews and 8 focus group discussions with residents in Aktau and Atyrau. Data were analyzed using thematic coding and a structured comparison across groups and locations.

The findings show that both institutions and local communities share a strikingly similar set of concerns. Rather than institutions supporting hydrogen while communities resist it, both groups identify the same conditions that must be met before development can move forward: water use must be managed carefully and transparently; governance arrangements must be clear and credible; and the benefits of hydrogen must reach local people rather than flowing primarily to investors or the national elite. Fairness — over jobs, skills, water, and environmental protection — is not a secondary concern but a core condition for acceptance.

The study also finds evidence of what we call "trust fatigue": a cumulative skepticism built up through years of large projects that were announced with high expectations but delivered limited results. This shapes how both institutions and communities respond to new initiatives, regardless of their technical merit.

The paper argues that the main barriers to green hydrogen development in Kazakhstan are not technological but institutional. Legitimacy cannot be added later through better communication — it must be built into project design from the start. For fossil-dependent states pursuing hydrogen transitions, this means treating governance credibility, water protection, and fair benefit-sharing as entry conditions rather than optional features.

Keywords: green hydrogen, Kazakhstan, social acceptance, energy justice, governance, institutional trust, fossil-fuel dependence, energy transition