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Accepted Paper:
China's Population Change and Its Geopolitical Impact
XU ZHU
(Xi'an Jiaotong University)
In the era of globalization, the interaction between population and geopolitics has become a new academic research topic. This article explores the interactive mechanism between demographic change and geopolitical change, analyses the impact of China's demographic change on geopolitics, and draws the following conclusions. First, demographic change is a complex social phenomenon that can have a profound impact on geopolitics. Second, China's population is undergoing irreversible and historic changes in both quantity and structure, especially in terms of low fertility, population ageing and migration. As a large country with an important geopolitical position and influence in the world, China and its demographic changes will have far-reaching and lasting impacts on the geopolitical landscape of neighbouring countries, regions and even the globe. Third, China's demographic changes will profoundly affect the world's economic landscape at the global level, intensify the long-term competition and strategy games between the major powers of China and the United States, and increase the uncertainty of the international order. Fourth, the outflow and distribution of Chinese immigrants have shaped the geopolitical relations of East Asian countries to a considerable extent. Fifth, China's demographic change also affects the bilateral relations with neighbouring countries, manifesting both in positive impacts linked to labour and economic development and conflicts from national identity, culture, and values.