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Abstract:

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate about Kazakhstan’s foreign policy perspectives due to the war in Ukraine. Its novelty relies on the analysis of choice, which is not peculiar to non-democratic regimes. After Russia invaded Ukraine fully in 2022, it became apparent that the traditional multi-vector paradigm extrapolated to almost all of Kazakhstan’s allies faced the challenge. Though Kazakhstan continues to adhere to a multivectorism, this paper discusses the survey results expressing the divergence of Kazakh intellectuals’ views regarding their choice of the West or Russia amid modern geopolitical contradictions. The foregoing investigation used a mixed research method among Kazakhstani experts specializing in foreign affairs.

Generally, there is a realist’ assertion proclaiming that, in fact, multivectorism is a form of relational power permitting small states to coexist with greater powers within unequal relationships. Thus, many scholars are convinced that Kazakhstan always used to be close to Russia and this dynamic will save further. As controversial as statements will be, the one I’ve faced is the lack of evidence-based knowledge about Kazakhstan’s foreign policy choices, which can depend on various factors.

I admit that many empirical studies on the subject appeared last time, but the analysis of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy choice due to modern geopolitical aggravation still needs to be improved.

This scholarly discussion is structured as follow: first, the paper will explore the problem of choice phenomenon in the foreign policy analysis of Kazakhstan; second, the paper shares the results of the survey demonstrating the prevalence of Western mood over the Russian among the expert community (done at the Alchemer platform); third, new findings borne in the results of the author’s survey will be addressed to the audience and presented for further discussion.

This paper is based on published materials on the information platform affiliated with the George Washington University and archive materials of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.