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Abstract:

(If possible, a projector for a power point would be very useful (or I can bring handouts))

Abstract

COVID-19’s impact on fertility is complex. Concern over access to family planning led to predictions of fertility increases, particularly in less developed countries. Isolation and economic hardship prompted others to predict fertility declines, particularly in more developed settings. Research in Britain and South Africa ties stress in the early months of the pandemic to higher fetal loss for males. Across the pandemic declines in fertility emerged highlighting the diversity of COVID-19 impacts across national, regional and individual parental characteristics. Analyses to date tend to focus on the size of birth cohorts and the pandemic’s influence on the timing of births. Few studies have explored how the pandemic affects the composition of birth cohorts, particularly in regions with strong son preference and skewed sex ratios at birth (the number of males born per 100 females)

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Exploring data (2019-2023) in the southern Caucasus I examine national and regional patterns of SRBs, addressing three questions. First, is there evidence linking state led pronatalist programs to the emergence of a “baby bump” during the pandemic period, or protection from a decline in births? Second, have pandemic related limitations on healthcare access led to declines in SRBs imbalances? Lastly, has the pandemic period amplified son-preference, and if so, is the change persistent? Data from individual national health surveys and regional vital statistics sex, parity, rural residence, and region from each country provide insight into these questions.

Exploring how pandemic fertility trends interact with the existence of well documented imbalances in sex ratios at birth provides a unique contribution to our understanding of how cohort size and the son preference interact with health crises. Findings in the Caucasus show an overall decline in fertility in 2020-2022 and a statistically significant rise in the sex ratio at birth, questioning the efficacy of various pronatalist programs and pre-pandemic efforts to address son preferences and sex selection abortion. SRB imbalances, markedly in Azerbaijan, rose highest in rural areas, showing declines in 2022 and 2023. Results indicate the increased “costs” of childbearing during the uncertainty of the pandemic led to fewer births and more women seeking male births. Findings highlight the persistence of son preference in the region, contributing to the “lost females” in the region, and expands our understanding of fertility during the pandemic.