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Abstract:

Chinese migration has become a crucial factor influencing Kazakhstan's socio-economic development. Despite the positive official attitude towards migration from China, fears about the threats posed by the expansion of Chinese migration persist in Kazakhstani society. Researchers continuously focus on the conflicting assessments of the demographic, economic, and socio-political consequences of the growing Chinese presence in the country, which occasionally sparks heated socio-political debates.

The article synthesizes results from surveys and social research conducted in Kazakhstan over different years. Based on these findings, the piece analyzes the preconditions, patterns, geographical aspects, and composition of labor migration. It also predicts potential future consequences. During the analysis, theories such as M. Todaro's neoclassical economic theory, Stark & Taylor's new economic theory of migration, Pior's dual labor markets theory, and Palloni's theory of migration networks were considered.

The analysis reveals that widespread claims about Chinese demographic expansion in Kazakhstan lack substantial grounds. However, it highlights that uncontrolled expansion of China's economic presence, especially in strategically important sectors of Kazakhstan's economy, could lead to a rapid and significant increase in the flow of legal migration from China.