Paper abstract:

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is predominantly viewed through a prism of rising power and small-state relations, concentrating on the interests of China to extract resources and create dependency through state-owned companies and financial instruments. In contrast to state-centric approaches, there is an emerging recognition of the role of local day-to-day practices and fragmented, decentralised, and partially internationalised multiple actors who act independently and sometimes contradict state policies. However, there is no empirical study critically assessing BRI projects in small Central Asian states with respect to the role of factors discussed in the literature. In these regards, the study takes Kazakhstan's cooperation with China under BRI to perform a case study. Astana has agreed with Beijing for 55 projects to be implemented jointly between 2015 – 2019. However, by December 2022, no more than one-third of the projects are commissioned, while others are still under implementation or even replaced for being passive. Such inconsistencies lead to the question: “Why are some of Kazakhstan’s BRI projects being successfully implemented while others remain passive or excluded from the list”? To answer the question and fill the gap in the literature, Kazakhstan’s successful BRI projects are systematically compared with failed ones to see what conditions discussed in the academic literature play a decisive role in their implementation. The author designs multi-method research by employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) followed by the process tracing method. The former is specifically designed to answer questions looking for causes of effects and determine sufficient causal conditions leading to results. Process tracing, in turn, allows looking closer at those conditions in a causal chain of the process. Findings indicate that along with the availability of Chinese investments and support of the host country’s government, which is more accessible to particular actors, the position of a beneficiary owner of a project in the political-economic system (patron, client, broker/independent business) plays a crucial role. The study contributes to the literature with empirical data on Kazakhstan’s BRI projects and complements emerging discourse based on a critical and decentralised approach to international relations.