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Accepted Paper:

Missed Signals and Mixed Motives: How Mongolia and the U.S. Repeated the Same Mistakes Across Multiple Decades  
Michael Lake

Paper abstract:

Even though formal bilateral relations were not established until 1987, the United States had multiple interactions with Mongolia after its self-declared independence from China in 1911. After Vice President Wallace’s visit in 1944 these ran the gamut from interchanges at the United Nations and its constituent organizations, occasional visits by U.S. embassy officers from Beijing and Moscow, journalists and academics, and visits by high profile individuals such as Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas and scholar Owen Lattimore. For two countries with no formal ties, there was a surprising level of interaction. Yet because of the nature of their relationship, these contacts were limited, sporadic, and took a backseat to other strategic interests including relations with China and the Soviet Union.

On multiple occasions, actions undertaken by one party were misunderstood by the other. This paper will touch on the strategic impediments that delayed relations and the circumstances that had to come together just right to finally enable the normalization of relations. It does this by highlighting three specific moments in Mongol-U.S. relations and examining the misperceptions and driving political factors on each side. We begin by looking at the political dynamics that led to the post-World War II status quo in East Asia from both the Mongolian and American perspectives (including Wallace’s trip, negotiations at Yalta, and the relationship between the U.S., the Soviet Union, and the Republic of China). This is followed by an examination of attempts by both the Kennedy Administration and Moscow that were blown back by political winds. Finally, we look at the 1980s where misperceptions continued, but the circumstances were finally ripe for normalization of relations.

This paper reflects the authors’ ongoing effort to document the events that led to Mongolia’s adoption and implementation of a Third Neighbor policy. This shift in Mongolia’s strategic thinking unfolded against the backdrop of its changing relationship with the Soviet Union and the ending of 45 years of international bipolar strife. Our work builds on six years of research including a chapter in Socialist and Post-Socialist Mongolia (Routledge 2021); memories and memoirs of the American, Mongolian, Japanese, and Russian diplomats; and declassified records from the CIA and the State Department. These research paths opened additional insights and perspectives on the winding path that eventually led to diplomatic recognition and additional interactions in the waning days of the Cold War.

Panel POL07
Diplomacy and Foreign Influence
  Session 1 Friday 20 October, 2023, -