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Paper abstract:

Today the relations between Russia and the West have seriously deteriorated against the backdrop of the Russia’s war of aggression towards Ukraine. At the same time, on 20 February 2023 the EU has officially launched its Monitoring Mission in Armenia with a two-year mandate “to contribute to stability in the border areas of Armenia, build confidence and human security in conflict-affected areas, and ensure an environment conducive to the normalization efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan supported by the EU”. However, the establishment of an EU Mission in Armenia has been considered by Moscow as an attempt to undermine Russia’s position in the South Caucasus. According to Russia, it is a “clear geopolitical move”.

In the aftermath of the Second Karabakh war there have been two distinct mediation efforts undertaken by the Russian and the EU intermediaries towards Armenia-Azerbaijani normalization process. France and the United States have also been active in this context. This study is guided by the question of whether or not the mediation process can be effective if it is undertaken by the above-mentioned two geopolitical actors – Russia and the West - that are currently in conflict. I assume that there could be certain difficulties in regard to the outcomes of the normalization process against the backdrop of the current rivalry between the mediators.

I also argue that balance of power in the region has drastically changed since November 2020, which has also led to a sharp increase in Armenia’s dependence on external powers. Some of these powers, instead of persuading Armenia to abandon its revanchist aspirations and move further toward sustainable peace in the region, have increased their support for Armenians’ vindictive behavior that undermines the likelihood of success in the ongoing normalization process. On the other hand, certain destructive attempts undertaken by others such as the summoning of Ruben Vardanyan, Moscow‑based Russian‑Armenian oligarch to the part of Karabakh where the Russian peacekeeping contingent has been temporarily deployed, has undermined engagement in possible direct negotiations of Azerbaijani officials with Karabakh Armenians. However, with Vardanyan’s recent removal from the post of so-called “state minister”, initial steps can be taken towards the gradual reintegration of Karabakh Armenians into Azerbaijani society. At the same time, if Armenian leadership convinces the public and takes a leap of faith then peace can prevail. This research is based on desk review and latest publications on state of play.