Paper abstract:

Afghanistan accounted for over 80% of global opium production in 2020, and the drug economy is deemed to play an important role in the conflicts in Afghanistan. Yet not much is known about the relationship between opium cultivation and conflict intensity. In this paper we investigate the seasonal patterns of violence among Afghan insurgent groups and provide new explanations for the relationship between climate, opium cultivation, and conflict. Combining dataset of opium, rainfall, conflicts, and household surveys, we find that extreme climate increase opium production and conflict. Deviation from average of rainfall in planting seasons leads to reductions in traditional crops such as wheat and maize, and is associated with more violence in the subsequent year. To lower the risk, farmers switch to opium to reduce the potential loss from the climate shock, since the growth of poppy seeds are less vulnerable to extreme rainfall and temperature change. Our findings highlight the negative impact of climate change on conflicts in developing countries.