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Accepted Paper:

Plague, war and the end of the world: astrology and the climate of disaster in 17th century Livonia  
Ulrike Plath (Tallinn University Estonian Academy of Sciences)

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Paper short abstract:

The combination of climate change, famine, war, and the plague around 1700 was the biggest disaster in Baltic history. How these events were foreseen, discussed and used in nowadays description of the similar combination of the apocalyptic riders?

Paper long abstract:

The 17th century is known for its radical climate extremes, for famines and the plague all over Europe. In Baltic history the end of the century brought one of the biggest cataclysms in history: the combination of climate change during the Maunder minimum (1645-1715) - the harshest time of the "Little Ice Age" -, the Great Famine (1795-1797), the Great Nordic War (1700-1710), and the Plague (1708-1712). When the four apocalyptic riders finally left the region, the population of current Estonia and Latvia was diminished to the early-medieval level.

In the paper I will ask if the potential for a big cataclysm was foreseen in calendars that dealt with astrological predictions and which has been the role of climate change in these predictions. In analyzing the main calendars of the region and the larger background of astrology in 17th century Europe I will further ask whether the course of history influenced the public standing of astrology. Finally I will ask, if this example and astrological predictions of an historical cataclysmic disaster have been used to describe the events in 2022. Can historical events be used to prepare for future events?

Panel P63
Planning for cataclysms: anticipating disaster and absorbing the aftermaths
  Session 1 Tuesday 11 April, 2023, -