Paper short abstract:

The paper examines intensification of ecological fragility and rapidity of environmental change in the Arctic. The discussion focuses on human capacity to predict ecological disasters while pointing at potential limitations of available models for forecasting, risk mitigation and relief efforts.

Paper long abstract:

The intensification of ecological fragility and rapidity of environmental change in the Arctic questions adaptability and human capacity to predict and avert ecological disasters while pointing at potential limitations of available models for forecasting, risk mitigation and relief efforts. Given the bounded human capacity for predicting unpredictable, the challenge is to craft a tentative strategy that takes into detailed and balanced consideration of limitations and productive potential of knowledge whether scientific or public. However, it is the accounts of survival and lived experiences by those who went through environmental calamities that become vital for ascertaining human capacity to adapt and negotiate safety. This paper aims to examine the ways Siberian Eveny reindeer herders deal with environmental unpredictability and survive by relying on their own patterns of mobility, tactics of flexibility and divination rituals. My discussion will attempt to address the following questions: What type of knowledge and tactics are required to reduce uncertainty of increasingly erratic nature of climate events and shape new patterns of adaptability reflexive of and responsive to local particularities and their wider implications? How do affected communities make sense of such critical events as landslide, wildfire or flash floods? Are humans able to mitigate risk situations and calamities when available strategies and resources are getting increasingly unreliable and stretched too thin? Can humans adequately respond to multiple threats induced by climate change?